All to play for in Southend West

Southend West was created as a constituency in 1950. In the eighteen elections since then it has been won by Conservative candidates on every occasion. (Labour have been second on six occasions, Liberal Democrats twelve times.)

It is described as ‘safe’, and the statistics appear to bear this out.

However, I sense that things could be changing. See the chart here. This shows the Conservative vote as a percentage of all who are eligible to vote in Southend West. Things changed in 1997, when David Amess first arrived on the scene.

Something like three-quarters of voters are not voting Conservative. Now, I admit it is a stretch to suggest how these people would vote (although we know how some of them vote), but it does show that this ‘safe’ seat could be anything but.

The Conservatives attract less support that those who opt to not vote.

Consider 2005: The Conservatives won with 23.8% of the local electorate supporting them. Yet 48.6% of Southend West’s voters stayed at home that year – more than twice the number who backed Mr Amess.

The Conservative vote picked up in 2010, largely because of the unpopularity of Gordon Brown’s administration, yet they could only muster the support of 28.1% of the electorate. Again, this was some way short of the 33.9% who did not vote.

Is it all to play for in Southend West? I think it is.

Again, Southend Tories snub Southend people

It is no news for me to restate that my election agent this year is Southend West resident Cllr Kevin Robinson. My Conservative opponent cannot make the same claim.

David Amess has opted for Castle Point resident Nigel Holdcroft. Southend’s Tories make a regular habit of choosing from outside of the borough – three of the last four Tory council leaders have not resided in the borough (Latham, Waite and Holdcroft). Only one-year leader Murray Foster was a Southend resident.

One can only speculate as to why they hold Southend people in such low regard. They regularly choose to have councillors from outside of the borough (Ann Holland and Adam Jones at the moment), which whilst not against any rules does leave wondering what they really think of the town and those that inhabit it.

Still, Nigel Holdcroft’s retirement from politics lasted less than a year.

Arithmetical mess, and a promise of instability

What is noticeable in this leaflet is that David Amess is somewhat shy about his period as MP prior to 1997.

He starts: “I have been your MP since 1997“. He finishes: “Working for constituents for over 30 years“.

Each statement is true, but .. 1997 is a mere eighteen years ago. What of the other dozen years? Oh yes, he was in Basildon. He fled there when he noticed the writing on the wall. When he speaks of “working for constituents“, does this work include his flight from the fight with Angela Smith?

Between these two statements he writes little that can be described as accurate.

There is no threat of a Labour-SNP coalition. The country was in growth when we left office in 2010. An EU referendum promises instability at a time when we are still fighting to achieve a proper economic recovery.

He says that “only a Conservative Government would ensure that the recovery continues“, yet a two-year referendum debate threatens that recovery. Besides, it was the last Labour Government that oversaw a record period of growth and prosperity – a period only broken by the Tory’s friends in the banking community.

#6monthstowin – a look at the prospects in Southend

With six months to go we are starting to get a picture of who is standing in Southend in the coming General Election.

For Rochford and Southend East we have four declared candidates:

James Duddridge‘s Conservative Party are in decline in the east of the borough, and things are not going so well in the two wards that form part of Rochford District. His party failed to win any of the ten wards that make up Rochford and Southend East, and they came second in total votes garnered. The Independents were first, and since it is unlikely they will have a candidate their vote will likely be shared by Labour and UKIP.

UKIP’s candidate is Cllr Floyd Waterworth. His selection was a surprise, and I honestly do not know what type of campaigner he is, for even though he represents the ward I live in I have not seen him outside of the council chamber. UKIP will do well, although I suspect theirs is likely a respectable third place.

The Green Party’s Simon Cross is a Kursaal activist and contested that ward in May. They will figure only on the margins, and in a tight contest their vote will matter insofar as to where it comes from. If you assume that Green supporters tend to come from the Left, then he will eat into the Labour vote.

Labour’s chances rest with Cllr Ian Gilbert; and 2015 in the east looks to be our best hope for success since 1980 and the by-election that saw Teddy Taylor scrape in. With the Tories set to lose more councillors in the east in May this is a contest that must be close. It really comes down to how much of the independent vote can be grabbed, and what the doubling of turnout will do.

The Liberal Democrats have yet to select. They will struggle and may even lose their deposit; certainly that was where their vote share was earlier this year.

As for Southend West:

David Amess is on surer ground than his colleague in the east, and he will console himself that the Conservative can still win a few wards here. However, he will be aware of UKIP’s presence and the west is increasingly looking like a four-way marginal. Mr Amess will still be the favourite, but he is in for a bumpy ride.

I (Cllr Julian Ware-Lane) am Labour’s candidate. Labour will do much better in 2015 than they did in 2010; it would be difficult to not improve on a dreadful national performance, and this will lift support locally. This seat has been Conservative since 1906, and whilst victory is possible the challenge will be to convince Labour supporters that it is so; and to persuade those who want the Tories out to back me.

UKIP’s Brian Otridge is the only other declared candidate at the moment. He will be cheered by the thought that had his party put up a full slate in the west in May they may well have garnered more votes than the Tories.

The Liberal Democrats have no candidate at the moment, which speaks volumes in itself. They will have a runner in the race, whose job it will principally be to distance themselves from the dirty deeds of the coalition.

The following table shows the vote shares (%) in each constituency extrapolated from the local election results of May just gone. General Elections are not like local elections, and the turnout in May will be about half of what it will be next year, and so you can only read so much into these figures.. But, the data does show the challenges facing both sitting MPs. We appear to be in an era of four-party politics in England, and if this carries through to the General Election there really is everything to play for in both halves of the town. As it stands, James Duddridge looks to have about a quarter of voters behind him at the moment, and David Amess a third. If the electorate gathers behind the most likely candidate to eject either of them then we could see the first Parliamentary change in the town since 1906.

	Rochford and Southend East	Southend West
Independent Group	27.5	7.1
Conservative	26.1	34.1
Labour	20.5	15.7
UKIP	16.7	22.5
Liberal Democrat	3.2	20.0
Green	1.5	0.8

 

I reckon the Liberal Democrats will be disappointed in Southend West

I have never thought that MPs’ expenses would be a big deciding factor in the election. This is based on gut feeling, rather than anything scientific, although I can point to the conversations I have had over the last year as an indicator.

Sure, many people have been, and are still, very angry about what went on. This anger, in my opinion, has affected the Labour vote far more than any other party. The Tories I have discussed this with seem more accepting of a culture of expense claims.

However, as the election has drawn nearer conversations about the economy, pensions, immigration, education, etc have easily out-numbered any about dodgy claims, trips, or lobbying.

The Liberal Democrats in Southend West are hoping that I am wrong. Of course they are discussing the full raft of issues out there, but they also believe that incumbent Tory David Amess has been damaged.

Now, I want David Amess out of Parliament, but I do not think it is going to happen. For starters he is defending a good majority, and despite the wishful thinking of Peter Welch, Tom Flynn, the Labour candidate, has been active. The anti-Tory vote in Southend West is evenly split. It would require a considerable amount of tactical voting and significant numbers of disgruntled Tories choosing to sit on their hands for this town to elect its first non-Tory in over a century.

I also believe that, despite the excellent campaigning by Kevin Bonavia, the Tories will hold onto Rochford and Southend East. Mind you, I would love to proved an awful pundit for both these constituencies!

Where Thursday in Southend will prove very interesting is in the local government elections. I think the Conservatives will lose control of the council, and I am predicting Tory losses in Belfairs, Southchurch, Shoeburyness and Thorpe Bay. Labour is defending three seats, and I reckon they will hold all of these. Westborough will be a close fight, as it always is, and Kevin Robinson stands a good chance of getting back into the council chamber.

It could be all change for Southend West next year

I am represented by a Conservative in Parliament, and three Liberal Democrats at Borough Council level. Southend-on-Sea is a unitary authority, so I have no County Council representation.

Southend West is generally considered a safe bet for the Tories. For some time it was the personal fiefdom of the Guinness family; three generations having represented (and even occasionally visited) the seat. Since 1997, chicken-runner David Amess has managed to dent the Tory majority, yet still cling on.

	Feb 1974	Oct 1974	1979	1983	1987	1992	1997	2001	2005
Con	46.7	47.6	57.7	54.5	54.4	54.7	38.8	46.3	46.2
Lib	37.1	33.3	24.7	37.9	38.1	30.9	33.1	24.9	23.7
Lab	16.3	19.2	16.3	7.6	7.5	12.3	22.8	25.1	22.8

(The above table shows the percentage of votes for each of the main parties in General Elections since 1974.)

Labour managed second place in 2001, and missed out on the runners-up spot last time by a mere handful (377) of votes.

The expenses row will make a lot of sitting MPs nervous. Their number ought to include Mr Amess. He has not only got a few questions to answer, but has managed a few ill-judged stunts.

His Labour opponent is Tom Flynn, a fine candidate who will get my vote. The Liberal Democrats are represented by Peter Welch. He also blogs, and his writings can be found here: http://peterwelchsouthendwest.blogspot.com/

Southend West is no weather-vane seat. Yet for perhaps the first time in its history the election result will not be a foregone conclusion. Local Conservative supporters may endorse Mr Amess regardless; however I suspect that Tom and Peter will give him considerable food for thought. The ruling Conservative administration on Southend-on-Sea Borough Council is under threat; they will lose control if the trends of the recent years are continued. Poor local administration coupled with the ridiculous and greedy antics of its MP could see the political complexion of Southend West assume a new hue next year.

Chump

My thanks to Raincoat Optimism for alerting me to this priceless gem: MP says his bags were packed by Bin Laden, is violently ill on plane – and then sends letter of complaint to Virgin

The troughing MP for Southend West is aptly named – Amess.

A mess

Today’s edition of the Leigh and Westcliff Times carries a Political Talking Point article from Southend West’s Conservative MP, David Amess.

He begins: “I wish I had a pound for every time someone stopped me and said …”.

Not the best opener for someone mired in the MPs’ expenses row (for an example, see MPs’ expenses revealed).

The largely anonymous yet avaricious chicken-runner really should be more solicitous with his choice of words.