Round and round

The last few days have seen me become a bit of a minor bureaucrat as I chase around ensuring nomination papers are completed. This is not an onerous task, but the implications behind a mistake verge on catastrophic. This makes for a nervous few days for those of us tasked with running a borough-wide campaign.

Nominations opened yesterday, and in ten days nominations close. At that point we will discover who is standing and where. It is a fairly straightforward question for the three main parties – all (or almost all) seventeen wards will have candidates. It is the presence of the minor parties that is always a little intriguing. How many from the Green party will be standing, what Independents will there be, have UKIP managed to improve their local organisation, is the far-right showing its face anywhere?

The Liberal Democrats have been in the local press talking up their chances. I guess they have to. I think an honest assessment of their prospects leaves little cause for optimism from them, though. I have heard some predict a total whitewash for them – I do not think this very likely. Some are talking of a gain in West Leigh – possible, but dependent on what is happening to Conservative support, and what UKIP is doing, as much as it has anything to do with the Lib Dem campaign.

It is interesting to consider that Lib Dem incumbents, Westborough and Cllr Paul Collins aside, are under pressure from their national coalition partners. It could easily be a case of who is least unpopular in places like Leigh, Blenheim Park, St Laurence and Prittlewell – Clegg or Cameron? It may not be fair that national politics play such a big role in local elections, but it is the way it is.

The Conservatives are set for a disaster on May 22nd. Remember that in every national election they have contested, every single one, they have either won or been second. Third place awaits them, unless a remarkable improvement in fortunes comes their way in the next five weeks, in the European elections. Quite what this means for the local elections in Southend-on-Sea remains to be seen, but you can easily envisage some very nervous Tories who are seeking re-election.