Attrition

Those hoping that Cameron’s dozen majority during the current Parliament will soon evaporate are likely to be disappointed. The table below suggests that by-elections are diminishing in frequency, and besides the incumbent party usually holds on.

Parliament	Total	Won by incumbent party	Caused by death	Appointment	Resignation	Re-election	Void election
1979-83	20	14	15	2	2	1
1983-87	31	25	11	5		15
1987-92	24	16	20	4
1992-97	18	9	16	2
1997-01	17	15	10	3	3		1
2001-05	6	4	4	2
2005-10	14	10	8	2	3	1
2010-15	21	17	6	1	11	2	1

We have younger MPs, and MPs for whom being an MP is the goal at the end of a career in politics. Whilst Cameron’s majority is twelve, once you take into account the Speaker, Sinn Fein, and friendly parties then his majority likely doubles – and overturning that would require a great many by-elections – more than has been the norm since 1979.

I conclude, and this is no genius conclusion, that this Parliament will go full term. The only party who can make it otherwise are the Conservatives themselves – unlikely unless something goes disastrously wrong with that EU referendum.