Attrition

Those hoping that Cameron’s dozen majority during the current Parliament will soon evaporate are likely to be disappointed. The table below suggests that by-elections are diminishing in frequency, and besides the incumbent party usually holds on.

Parliament Total Won by incumbent party Caused by death Appointment Resignation Re-election Void election
1979-83 20 14 15 2 2 1
1983-87 31 25 11 5 15
1987-92 24 16 20 4
1992-97 18 9 16 2
1997-01 17 15 10 3 3 1
2001-05 6 4 4 2
2005-10 14 10 8 2 3 1
2010-15 21 17 6 1 11 2  1

We have younger MPs, and MPs for whom being an MP is the goal at the end of a career in politics. Whilst Cameron’s majority is twelve, once you take into account the Speaker, Sinn Fein, and friendly parties then his majority likely doubles – and overturning that would require a great many by-elections – more than has been the norm since 1979.

I conclude, and this is no genius conclusion, that this Parliament will go full term. The only party who can make it otherwise are the Conservatives themselves – unlikely unless something goes disastrously wrong with that EU referendum.

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One Response to Attrition

  1. Rob Brown says:

    Tory backbenchers could not have hoped for a powerful position.

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