The pecking order in Essex

When asked about the constituencies in Essex in terms of most winnable for Essex, as I was earlier today, I said that I would look at what the numbers from May 7th indicated. The data here shows how far Labour is from victory (Gap). Whilst every constituency is unique, and one has to factor in how much squeezable vote there is, as well as the history of each seat and whether there are local authority representatives from Labour, this is, I believe, as good a yardstick as any.

constituency Labour vote % position gap %
Thurrock 32.6 2 1.1
South Basildon and East Thurrock 25.2 3 18.2
Harlow 30.0 2 18.9
Rochford and Southend East 24.7 2 21.7
Colchester 16.2 3 22.8
Basildon and Billericay 23.7 2 29.0
Clacton 14.4 3 30.0
Harwich and North Essex 19.7 2 31.3
Southend West 18.3 2 31.5
Braintree 18.5 3 35.3
Chelmsford 17.6 2 35.9
Castle Point 13.8 3 37.0
Epping Forest 16.1 3 38.6
Witham 15.8 3 41.7
Rayleigh and Wickford 12.6 3 42.1
Saffron Walden 11.8 3 45.4
Maldon 11.8 3 48.8
Brentwood and Ongar 12.5 3 50.7

I do not think there are too many surprises here, although Colchester at number five may raise an eyebrow or two – Colchester was last won by Labour in 1945. Mind you, Rochford and Southend East (and its predecessor seats) has never been Labour.

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