Labour vote shares in Essex

May 12, 2015 8 Comments

Constituency 2010 vote % 2015 vote % Improvement
Chelmsford 11.0 17.6 6.6
Southend West 13.4 18.3 4.9
Rochford and Southend East 20.3 24.7 4.4
Colchester 12.3 16.2 3.9
Brentwood and Ongar 9.9 12.5 2.6
Saffron Walden 9.7 11.8 2.1
Epping Forest 14.3 16.1 1.8
Basildon and Billericay 23.0 23.7 0.7
Harwich and North Essex 19.9 19.7 -0.2
Castle Point 14.7 13.8 -0.9
Maldon 12.7 11.8 -0.9
Braintree 19.9 18.5 -1.4
Rayleigh and Wickford 14.5 12.6 -1.9
Witham 18.5 15.8 -2.7
Harlow 33.7 30.0 -3.7
Thurrock 36.6 32.6 -4.0
South Basildon and East Thurrock 31.0 25.2 -5.8
Clacton 25.0 14.4 -10.6

This table lists the eighteen Essex Parliamentary constituencies, ordered by the percentage improvement in the Labour vote.

I could have ordered this table in quite a number of ways, but I am proud of managing the second best jump in vote share in Essex, and delighted that Labour is now second in Southend West. Whilst it is some distance from being a marginal, we are now the main challenger here – and there is more anti-Tory vote to squeeze.

I am aware that very campaign has its own story, and of the incredible amount of work put in by candidates and their teams.

I would suggest that the priority seats remain those with the largest absolute vote share. This means, in order, Thurrock, Harlow, South Basildon and East Thurrock. The two Southend seats are fourth and eighth.

For me the story of the 2015 elections and the Labour campaign is best summarised by looking at Clacton. It seems obvious to me that Labour was leaking more support to UKIP than had been previously acknowledged.

Filed under elections, Labour Tagged with ,

8 Responses to Labour vote shares in Essex

  1. outsidethemarginals says:
    May 12, 2015 at 1:26 pm

    Clacton

    (UKIP) - Douglas Carswell 19,642
(CON) - Giles Watling ----- 16,205
(LAB) -- Tim Young --------    6,364
(GRN) - Chris Southall ----    1,184
(LD) ---- David Grace ------       812

    Of course the Green Labour Party is entitled to stand candidates. But their supporters must understand that actions have consequences. Until we have electoral reform, something the Greens some Labour members argue for, we have a first past the post system. In Milton ward Clacton this simply means that it is either Labour UKIP or the Conservatives that can win.

    Last year At the By-election the Green Labour vote in Kursaal Clacton saw a UKIP councillor MP elected. This year, in Milton Clacton , it was the Tories UKIP who benefited.

    I doubt that many Green Labour activists will agree with my analysis, or particularly care. Theirs was as much an anti-LabourConservative message as anything.

    Fifty-one 3,437 votes separated Gray Watling from the council chamber House of Commons. Compare this 51 3,437 with the 476 6,364 achieved by The Greens Labour.

    Of course, it may be somewhat presumptuous to assume that Green Labour supporters would normally back Labour Conservatives. However, I know some of these Green Labour voters, and I do not see any former Tories UKIPpers amongst them.

    Vote Green Labour get blue purple may be a lazy soundbite, but in Milton Clacton, in this year, at this election, it has a ring of truth.

  2. Julian Ware-Lane says:
    May 12, 2015 at 2:04 pm

    What you seem oblivious to is that the Tories and UKIP are from the same (right) wing of politics. So, apart from completely (and probably deliberately) misunderstanding my point, very funny.

  3. Tony Cox says:
    May 12, 2015 at 2:29 pm

    Julian, I partially agree with your comment above except that in the north of the country, UKIP appear to be to the left of Labour. You could argue a bit like what the Lib Dems are – all things to all men.

  4. Julian Ware-Lane says:
    May 12, 2015 at 2:34 pm

    Tony Cox: I suspect that is true that UKIP have taken many votes off Labour. However, I cannot agree that this puts them to the left of Labour. What it says to me is that their anti-immigration argument resonated with many traditional Labour voters.

  5. outsidethemarginals says:
    May 12, 2015 at 2:37 pm

    Many Greens view Labour as being in the same bracket as the Conservatives in supporting a failed economic order and putting economic growth before the health of the planet.

    The supremacy of pure Left – Right thinking is surely approaching its sell-by date and the parties that live exclusively by it may find their support dwindling.

    However as you expect Greens in Kursaal and Milton to choose the lesser of all the evils, shouldn’t that apply (under your reasoning) to all third place parties? Surely Labour voters are just as capable as Greens of choosing the lesser of all evils?

  6. Julian Ware-Lane says:
    May 12, 2015 at 2:44 pm

    It is not for me to argue for the Conservative or UKIP cause. I can speak with some authority about my borough. Cllr Jonathan Garston has a track record of failing Milton ward. He could have been ousted.

  7. Tony Cox says:
    May 12, 2015 at 3:16 pm

    Julian, I think it is on policies. For example, in a northern parliamentary by-election last year, the UKIP candidate was arguing for greater welfare spending. In the south, they argue for welfare reform.

  8. Rob Brown says:
    May 12, 2015 at 9:57 pm

    UKIP don’t keep going on about how they’re the real Labour Party or how we have left them politically (despite them usually not being any better than lukewarm in support) though. It is the hypocracy and duplicity of Greens that grates me rather than their standing in elections which they clearly have a right to do.

    Also isn’t KitKat one of the most odious men in local politics anywhere?

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