A mere twitch, the barest movement in the polls

July last year I did a round-up of the opinion polls.

The averages then showed the following:

35.3% Labour
31.8% Conservative
15.4% UKIP
7.9% Liberal Democrat

Given the margin of error for all polls is +/-3% you could argue that ten months on nothing has changed,

Lab Con LDem UKIP Grn
18 April 2015 YouGov 36 33 8 13 5
18 April 2015 Opinium 32 36 8 13 5
20 April 2015 Populus 34 32 9 15 4
20 April 2015 ICM 32 34 10 11 5
20 April 2015 Ashcroft 30 34 10 13 4
20 April 2015 YouGov 35 34 7 13 5
22 April 2015 YouGov 34 35 7 13 5
23 April 2015 Panelbase 34 31 7 17 4
23 April 2015 Survation 29 33 10 18 4
23 April 2015 ComRes 32 36 8 10 5
23 April 2015 YouGov 35 33 8 13 5
Averages 33.0 33.7 8.4 13.5 4.6
Avgs Feb 25th 33.1 31.4 7.9 16 5.6
Movement -0.1 2.3 0.5 -2.5 -1.0

In ten months Labour have dropped 2.3%, the Conservatives have gained 1.9%, UKIP has fallen 1.9%. and the Liberal Democrats 0.5% up. Given that all movements are less than 3%, and therefore within the accepted margin of error, it looks pretty steady.

With a mere thirteen days left then, the question remains: will anything change? If not then we are clearly in hung Parliament territory. However, with still quite a number declaring as undecided there is still everything to play for.

If the numbers are accurate then there is perceptible squeeze on UKIP and the Greens going on.

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