A mere twitch, the barest movement in the polls
April 24, 2015 Leave a comment
July last year I did a round-up of the opinion polls.
The averages then showed the following:
35.3% Labour
31.8% Conservative
15.4% UKIP
7.9% Liberal Democrat
Given the margin of error for all polls is +/-3% you could argue that ten months on nothing has changed,
Lab | Con | LDem | UKIP | Grn | ||
18 April 2015 | YouGov | 36 | 33 | 8 | 13 | 5 |
18 April 2015 | Opinium | 32 | 36 | 8 | 13 | 5 |
20 April 2015 | Populus | 34 | 32 | 9 | 15 | 4 |
20 April 2015 | ICM | 32 | 34 | 10 | 11 | 5 |
20 April 2015 | Ashcroft | 30 | 34 | 10 | 13 | 4 |
20 April 2015 | YouGov | 35 | 34 | 7 | 13 | 5 |
22 April 2015 | YouGov | 34 | 35 | 7 | 13 | 5 |
23 April 2015 | Panelbase | 34 | 31 | 7 | 17 | 4 |
23 April 2015 | Survation | 29 | 33 | 10 | 18 | 4 |
23 April 2015 | ComRes | 32 | 36 | 8 | 10 | 5 |
23 April 2015 | YouGov | 35 | 33 | 8 | 13 | 5 |
Averages | 33.0 | 33.7 | 8.4 | 13.5 | 4.6 | |
Avgs Feb 25th | 33.1 | 31.4 | 7.9 | 16 | 5.6 | |
Movement | -0.1 | 2.3 | 0.5 | -2.5 | -1.0 |
In ten months Labour have dropped 2.3%, the Conservatives have gained 1.9%, UKIP has fallen 1.9%. and the Liberal Democrats 0.5% up. Given that all movements are less than 3%, and therefore within the accepted margin of error, it looks pretty steady.
With a mere thirteen days left then, the question remains: will anything change? If not then we are clearly in hung Parliament territory. However, with still quite a number declaring as undecided there is still everything to play for.
If the numbers are accurate then there is perceptible squeeze on UKIP and the Greens going on.