A mere twitch, the barest movement in the polls

July last year I did a round-up of the opinion polls.

The averages then showed the following:

35.3% Labour
31.8% Conservative
15.4% UKIP
7.9% Liberal Democrat

Given the margin of error for all polls is +/-3% you could argue that ten months on nothing has changed,

		Lab	Con	LDem	UKIP	Grn
18 April 2015	YouGov	36	33	8	13	5
18 April 2015	Opinium	32	36	8	13	5
20 April 2015	Populus	34	32	9	15	4
20 April 2015	ICM	32	34	10	11	5
20 April 2015	Ashcroft	30	34	10	13	4
20 April 2015	YouGov	35	34	7	13	5
22 April 2015	YouGov	34	35	7	13	5
23 April 2015	Panelbase	34	31	7	17	4
23 April 2015	Survation	29	33	10	18	4
23 April 2015	ComRes	32	36	8	10	5
23 April 2015	YouGov	35	33	8	13	5
Averages		33.0	33.7	8.4	13.5	4.6
Avgs Feb 25th		33.1	31.4	7.9	16	5.6
Movement		-0.1	2.3	0.5	-2.5	-1.0

In ten months Labour have dropped 2.3%, the Conservatives have gained 1.9%, UKIP has fallen 1.9%. and the Liberal Democrats 0.5% up. Given that all movements are less than 3%, and therefore within the accepted margin of error, it looks pretty steady.

With a mere thirteen days left then, the question remains: will anything change? If not then we are clearly in hung Parliament territory. However, with still quite a number declaring as undecided there is still everything to play for.

If the numbers are accurate then there is perceptible squeeze on UKIP and the Greens going on.

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