A mere twitch, the barest movement in the polls
April 24, 2015 Leave a comment
July last year I did a round-up of the opinion polls.
The averages then showed the following:
7.9% Liberal Democrat
Given the margin of error for all polls is +/-3% you could argue that ten months on nothing has changed,
|18 April 2015||YouGov||36||33||8||13||5|
|18 April 2015||Opinium||32||36||8||13||5|
|20 April 2015||Populus||34||32||9||15||4|
|20 April 2015||ICM||32||34||10||11||5|
|20 April 2015||Ashcroft||30||34||10||13||4|
|20 April 2015||YouGov||35||34||7||13||5|
|22 April 2015||YouGov||34||35||7||13||5|
|23 April 2015||Panelbase||34||31||7||17||4|
|23 April 2015||Survation||29||33||10||18||4|
|23 April 2015||ComRes||32||36||8||10||5|
|23 April 2015||YouGov||35||33||8||13||5|
|Avgs Feb 25th||33.1||31.4||7.9||16||5.6|
In ten months Labour have dropped 2.3%, the Conservatives have gained 1.9%, UKIP has fallen 1.9%. and the Liberal Democrats 0.5% up. Given that all movements are less than 3%, and therefore within the accepted margin of error, it looks pretty steady.
With a mere thirteen days left then, the question remains: will anything change? If not then we are clearly in hung Parliament territory. However, with still quite a number declaring as undecided there is still everything to play for.
If the numbers are accurate then there is perceptible squeeze on UKIP and the Greens going on.