The certainty of uncertainty (a second General Election in 2015 anyone?)
January 28, 2015 1 Comment
With a mere fourteen weeks of campaigning to go the one thing that is abundantly clear is that there is no-one racing ahead. Whilst I have no doubt that it will be either David Cameron or Ed Miliband who occupies Number Ten after May 7th, it is far too close to call at the moment.
This is going to be a close election, and it has looked this way long enough for me to believe that it will remain close for the remainder of the campaign. The two main parties really are neck-and-neck, and a hung Parliament is definitely on the cards.
However, our First Past The Post system allows for majorities that defy low vote shares, and so whilst Labour and the Conservatives see their vote shares at under a third of the electorate they are still likely to hoover up the overwhelming majority of seats. This is bad news for UKIP and the Greens for whom a significant breakthrough is still very unlikely.
Looking at the opinion polls for the last week we arrive at the following averages:
7.6% Liberal Democrat
Plugging these numbers into Electoral Calculus we end up with the following prediction for seats
18 Liberal Democrat
This puts Labour within a single seat of an overall majority, and would probably mean a minority administration with informal agreements in place. It does, however, suggest a second General Election at some point, if only through the natural course of MP attrition.