July and August’s by-election summary

I begin with the oft-repeated caveat: local authority by-elections are not representative of the country as a whole. However, they are actual votes, cast at polling stations, and as imperfect an example as they may be they nonetheless gives us something to chew over.

So, to July and August’s numbers; the table here summaries the two month’s elections.

party vote share % seats won candidates net gain
Conservative 29.2 14 49 -5
Labour 25.6 18 45 5
UKIP 16.1 2 43 -1
Liberal Democrat 14.1 10 36 0
Independent 5.3 3 18 0
Green 4.1 2 25 0
others 5.6 1 18 1

There are number of indicators here worth considering.

I find the number of candidates fielded an indicator of the health of a party. There were fifty contests in all, and yet again I bemoan Labour’s failure to contest everywhere. UKIP, for the first time that I can recall, fielded more candidates than the Liberal Democrats.

The Conservative got the biggest vote share, but suffered more losses than anyone. UKIP also showed that holding onto their gains is problematical for them.

The Green Party is struggling to make any sort of impact. Consider their vote share over recent months:

4.1% July and August 2014
2.1% June 2014
2.7% April 2014
1.8% February and March 2014
2.1% August and September 2013
3.9% June and July 2013
3.8% May 2013
1.6% April 2013
5.8% March 2013

(For those who would like to peruse the numbers for themselves try this – https://warelane.wordpress.com/?s=by-election+summary)

Whilst 4.1% is their best showing that I have recorded in over a year, it is some way shy of having any real impact.


2 Responses to July and August’s by-election summary

  1. 4.1% is a margin of error, rather than a real impact.

  2. Pingback: September’s by-election summary | Julian's musings

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