Steady as she goes, a peek at the polls since May’s elections

The BBC’s projected national vote after May’s elections showed : 31% Labour, 29% Conservative, 17% UKIP, and 13% Liberal Democrat. That was almost six weeks ago – what has happened since?

I have looked at 31 pools taken since (I am grateful to UK Polling Report where I extracted the data) and it is a rather boring picture. Broadly speaking nothing has changed. The individual polls do dance around a bit, but the general trend persists.

The averages across the polls are

35.3% Labour
31.8% Conservative
15.4% UKIP
7.9% Liberal Democrat

We are ten months from the next General Election and anything can happen between now and then. But if these numbers were to persist (admittedly an unlikely scenario) then we would see a Labour majority of 36. The actual numbers given by Electoral Calculus shows Labour with 343 seats, Conservatives 261, Liberal Democrats 18, and UKIP with no seats.

It is the UKIP numbers that will be worth watching. As it stands they are unlikely to win many, if any seats in Parliament. Their voters may not care, being content to see a good vote share and their protest registered. I do think, though, that many will want a say in who runs the country, and therefore many will peel off and vote for either Miliband or Cameron. Cameron will certainly be hoping for this, especially as the UKIP vote generally seems to damage the Tories the most.

There is not much good news for Nick Clegg in these numbers. Whilst decimation is far from likely, they are bound to lose MPs.

Polling since May 22

Polling since May 22

One Response to Steady as she goes, a peek at the polls since May’s elections

  1. Pingback: A mere twitch, the barest movement in the polls | Julian's musings

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