April’s poll averages this far

Looking at sixteen polls so far in April produces the following averages:

36% Labour
30% Conservative
16.9% UKIP
9% Liberal Democrat

Averages are a much better indicator than taking an individual poll, and these sixteen cover a sixteen day period. There is variety of methodologies, as you would imagine with different pollsters, and a couple were European elections based (which explains the high UKIP number).

In every poll Labour were first. In every one the Liberal Democrats were fourth. The Conservatives were mostly second, although UKIP managed a joint first in one and a second place in another.

The European polling interests me most. In five weeks we have two sets of elections on the same day, and I think the European elections will have a big influence on what happens in the many local authority elections.

If Southend-on-Sea is at all typical, UKIP will be poorly organised on the ground but will pick up votes almost despite themselves. For many, UKIP is the basket labelled ‘none of the above’ – the current protest party of choice. The Conservatives appear demoralised and seemingly resigned to losing in many places. The Liberal Democrats are rather like the band on the Titanic – publicly chirpy despite knowing that they have hit an iceberg and are soon to sink. And my party? I think we would describe ourselves as quietly determined.

As for those Independents – they are predicting great things for themselves come May 22nd – their expectations do not tally with what I am finding on the doorstep. Publicly counting chickens is calling for an egg-on-face moment, in this correspondent’s opinion.


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