Shoeburyness

Perhaps the most interesting aspect of recent elections in Shoeburyness is the missing Liberal Democrats – they have not put anyone up there since 2010. Whilst they may claim it is a deliberate strategy I am not convinced. It indicates, to my mind anyway, that they are struggling in the east of Southend.

The last decade has seen a decline in Labour support in a ward that was once seen as a target for us. Our vote share has barely moved since the General Election, in contrast to many other places, which suggests that it will take a few years to rebuild our support base.

What is also noticeable is that the backdrop of a national election does damage the Independents chances – 2010 saw a Conservative victory. 2014 will see another national election (those for the European Parliament) and Tory hopes must be that this will be enough to secure victory. There will be UKIP to factor in, if they stand here. Their sole appearance in Shoeburyness was in 2010 where they received 5.2% of the votes cast.

A Tory hold is possible, but likeliest outcome is an Independent gain here in twelve months’ time.

Con to Lab swings in Essex

I am grateful to Cllr Ian Gilbert for sharing the following data with me. This table shows the swing from the Conservatives to Labour in the recent Essex County Council elections. The divisions shown are those where Labour polled more than 20%.

 

	Swing % Con to Lab
Rochford South	17.9
Harwich	17.8
Maypole	13.2
Laindon Park and Fryerns	12.8
Pitsea	12.2
Wivenhoe St Andrew	11.9
Clacton West	10.9
Harlow South East	10.7
Clacton North	9.5
Harlow West	9.4
Harlow North	8.8
Bocking	8.4
Witham Southern	8.3
Braintree Town	7.4
Halstead	6.1

 

I am pleased to note that the division that I helped out in had the biggest swing, and this is testament to Jerry Gibson and his hard-working team.

 

It does show the size of the mountain that Labour has to climb that of the 73 divisions in Essex we have only got above a fifth of the vote in fifteen of them.

April’s by-election summary

Eighteen contests in April. Labour almost managed a full slate and together with the Tories fielded the most candidates. I will repeat what I have said many times before; the truest mark of a truly national party is the number of contests they compete in. In this respect we are still in the era of three party politics, despite UKIP’s pretensions.

For the third month running Labour has the biggest vote share, and the Tories are third. Whilst the caveat is, as always, that council by-elections are unlikely to be representative there is a trend developing. Of course, the county elections gave a different perspective, but they are really not representative. At least amongst the council by-elections there will be a number of urban contests.

party	% vote share	seats won	candidates
Labour	40.2	11	17
Liberal Democrat	20.1	2	16
Conservative	19.5	3	17
UKIP	10.5	1	7
Independent	1.9	1	5
Green	1.6	0	5
Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts	0.8	0	3
others	5.3	0	9

A Green Rochford West

Rochford West 1973 – 2013

When I walked into the Mill Hall in Rayleigh last Thursday evening the first person I spied was Michael Hoy. The last time we were together at this venue was when he was working on my 2005 General Election campaign. Michael’s Labour days are long behind him as he trails a blaze for the Greens in Hullbridge nowadays.

As the evening wore on he started to look quite anxious. He asked me how I thought he was doing. At that point it looked quite close with the Tories edging it. When I looked again and thought I saw him just ahead I told him this. I am not sure whether this made him more or less anxious. In the end, though, he ended up with the biggest majority in the Rochford District in what is quite a remarkable result.

In 2009 the Greens had no candidate in Rochford West; four years later they won, and from a standing start this was the result of the night in Rochford.

Michael now sits on three tiers of local government, already being a Hullbridge parish member as well as on the district council. I cannot but wonder whether this is a good idea.

Labour were 1.1% down on their 2009 vote share, but had they repeated their 1973 result it would have been a comfortable victory. Instead it was another fourth place.

The Tories dropped 26.3%, the Liberal Democrats vote fell by 15.4%, and the BNP went from 16.7% to nothing (as they did not field a candidate).

Whilst the Tories will be at pains to explain this away as a protest vote there has been a decline in their support over the years. However, the real story of recent elections has been (since the turn of the century) one where other, minor, parties have slowly been establishing themselves. This coinciding with an unpopular Tory government has given Michael Hoy his triumph. It will be interesting to see whether he can hold on in 2017. I suspect the answer will lie in what work he puts in in establishing himself in those areas of Rochford West outside of Hullbridge. As with so many County seats, so many are odd marriages of district wards thrown together for statistical neatness.

The result

Michael Hoy – Green – 1615 – 38.5%
Keith Hudson – Conservative – 1279 – 30.5%
Cherry Young – UKIP – 878 – 21.0%
Rachael Broomfield – Labour – 344 – 8.2%
Ian Gale – Liberal Democrat – 74 – 1.8%

Turnout 29.8%

Top ten marginals on Essex County Council

division	majority	1st	2nd
Bocking	20	UKIP	Conservative
Harlow South East	21	Conservative	Labour
Braintree Town	31	Conservative	Labour
Southminster	39	Conservative	UKIP
Saffron Walden	48	Independent	Conservative
Witham Northern	61	Green	UKIP
Great Baddow	72	Conservative	UKIP
Rochford South	80	Conservative	Labour
Chelmsford West	103	Liberal Democrat	Conservative
Pitsea	126	Labour	UKIP

A Rochford South review

I have mixed feelings about election days. There is the excitement of the count, the expectation of success, and some pride in being part of the democratic process. There is also some dread about the very long and exhausting day.

Crawling into bed some time after 2am I lay for a moment aware of a number of aches and pains; I had been on the go since getting up at 5.30am the previous morning. I will not claim it was constant motion in my every waking moment, but there was quite a bit of work nonetheless. I wish some of those who denigrate politicians would come and find out just what is involved. Polling day is just the summit; holidays aside I reckon I am doing something political every day of the week, and sometimes this will be the hard-lifting that is canvassing and leafleting for hours and hours.

In truth, what one feels on polling day is governed by the result. A good result seems to banish all weariness.

I had some involvement in the Rochford South campaign for the Essex County Council elections. Not won by Labour since 1993 it was always going to be a difficult seat to win, but we were hopeful. Our hopes were raised by some good canvassing returns, and we were certain that we would improve on the 2009 result, if not actually get very close indeed. Some of us even dreamed of victory.

It seemed that despite there being four candidates it was actually a two-horse race – only us and the Tories appeared to be doing any campaigning. In the end UKIP attracted a fair number of votes, which suggests that here at least their’s was a protest vote.

In 2009 Labour came fourth, some 1505 votes behind the winning Conservative candidate. Last night that gap narrowed to a mere 80.

You could always look back at any campaign and see where you could have done more. However, I am happy that we fought as well as we could. In the end Colin Seagers was able to persuade more to choose him than Jerry Gibson could for our side, and my sincere congratulations go to him. Jerry was a good candidate, and I hope he will seek a district council seat next year.

One thing that did strike me was the number of people who could not be persuaded to vote. Somehow it has got into the minds of many that these elections mean nothing, they have no chance to change anything, and that nothing changes anyway. It also struck me that many saw voting as inconvenient. I am more convinced than ever that we need to reform our democracy, and this includes using technology. Almost everyone has something to say about the services delivered by the County Council, yet less than a quarter could be persuaded to have their say about it via the ballot box.

The final result:

Colin Seagers – Conservative – 1085 – 36.4%
Jerry Gibson – Labour – 1005 – 33.7%
Peter Van De Vyver – UKIP – 804 – 27.0%
Angela Robinson – Liberal Democrat – 89 – 3.0%

Turnout 24.09%

The Tories retain control in Essex

Here is a summary of yesterday’s Essex County Council elections:

	% vote share	seats	candidates	2009 %
Conservative	34.3	42	75	43.5
UKIP	27.8	9	75	4.4
Labour	17.5	9	73	11.6
Liberal Democrat	10.9	9	72	19.8
Green	4.7	2	66	6.2
Tendring First	1.3	1	8	1.4
Independent	1.1	1	7	0.0
Independent Loughton Residents Association	1.0	0	3	0.6
Canvey Island Independent	0.9	1	2	0.8
BNP	0.3	0	13	9.5
English Democrats	0.3	0	4	1.2
South Woodham Ferrers Independents	0.2	0	1
Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts	0.1	0	3
National Front	0.1	0	2
others	0.1	0	3	1.2

March’s by-election summary

Eighteen contests in the first three weeks of March. For the second month the Tories come third in vote share, although they do have a couple of successes to celebrate. For the first time in my memory Labour fielded the most candidates, although still failed to hit the 100% mark. After a good February, UKIP have slipped back to below the Greens.

party	vote %	seats won	no of candidates
Labour	37.9	8	15
Liberal Democrat	18.7	5	15
Conservative	16.0	2	14
Independent	11.3	2	5
Green	5.8	0	7
SNP	4.8	0	1
UKIP	4.2	1	3
BNP	0.5	0	3
others	0.9	0	3

Rochford South

The electoral history in Rochford South in many ways mirrors the national fortunes of the two main parties. As in so many local authority elections, Labour’s fortunes rise when they are in opposition nationally, and vice versa.

In the eleven elections since 1967 the Conservatives have won six times, and Labour on five occasions. Labour came fourth in 2009, and set against the backdrop of the MPs expenses scandal and the general unpopularity of the Labour Government at the time that is not an entirely surprising result (although disappointing).

This year, with a Conservative Government, hopes are high that Labour can achieve a decent result. I am not about to predict victory, but I will be amazed if we are not close to success. This time around there is just four candidates, and so we will not see the Greens or the BNP above us again. UKIP are standing for the first time and one can only guess what performance they will manage. From what I have seen of the Conservative literature they are worried though and have resorted to attacking our candidate.

Essex County Council election candidates

The candidates for next month’s Essex County Council have been published. This shows a full slate for the Conservative Party and UKIP. I regret that Labour have not managed this. Neither have the Liberal Democrats, although this is unsurprising given their shrinking membership and dwindling polling.

UKIP putting up a full slate is remarkable, especially considering that they fielded a mere 10 in 2005, and 19 in 2009. That they have more candidates than Labour says as much about their rising star as it does about Labour’s failure here. We managed a full slate in 2009 in a much less favourable political climate.

The one crumb of comfort in the announced field of candidates for Labour is that amongst the bigger parties we have the highest proportion of female candidates.

party	candidates	women	women %
Conservative	75	18	24%
UKIP	75	13	17.3%
Labour	73	24	32.9%
Liberal Democrat	72	21	29.2%
Green	66	21	31.8%
BNP	13	2	15.4%
Tendring First	8	1	12.5%
Independent	7	2	28.6%
English Democrat	4	1	25%
Independent Loughton Residents Association	3	1	33.3%
Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts	3	0	0%
National Front	3	0	0%
Canvey Island Independent	2	0	0%
Young People’s Party	1	0	0%
Community Representatives	1	0	0%
South Woodham Ferrers Independents	1	0	0%
No designation	2	0	0%

The following is not a complete list of candidates but a list for the five parties who have the largest slates.

division	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrat	Green	UKIP
Abbey	Tyron Wilson	Saimon Rashid	Margaret Fisher	Peter Lynn	Harry Royle
Basildon Westley Heights	David Burton-Sampson	John Schofield	Geoff Williams	Martin Wargent	Kerry Smith
Billericay and Burstead	Alan Bennett	Kay Twitchen	Nigel Horn	Nelson Brunton	Terry Gandy
	Santa Bennett	Anthony Hedley	Martin Howard	Stephen Watson	Susan McCaffery
Bocking	Lynn Watson	David Baugh	Pamela Hooper	Andrea Bunn	Gordon Helm
Braintree Eastern	Moia Thorogood	Patricia Newton	James Fleet	John Malam	Philip Palij
Braintree Town	Bill Edwards	Graham Butland	Hayden Hooper	Timothy Reeve	Rod Challis
Brentwood Hutton	Mike Le-Surf	Roger Hirst	Alfred Newberry	David Andrews	David Watt
Brentwood North	Yvonne Waterhouse	Chris Hossack	Barry Aspinell	Simon Attwood	Michael McGeogh
Brentwood Rural	Julie Morrissey	Ann Naylor	Lisa Barrett	Howard Bills	Yvonne Maguire
Brentwood South	Gareth Barrett	Keith Parker	David Kendall	Stephanie Bills	Mark Allen
Brightlingsea	Colin Olivier	Lynda McWilliams	Gary Scott	Maria Iacovou	Roger Lord
Broomfield and Writtle	Philip Gaudin	John Aldridge	Graham Pooley	Reza Hossain	Ian Nicholls
Buckhurst Hill and Loughton South	Andrew Forsey	Valerie Metcalfe	Garry Sadler	Steven Neville	David Dorrell
Canvey Island East	Matthew Reilly	David Cross	Owen Bartholomew		Brian Wood
Canvey Island West	Esther Akinnuwa	Raymond Howard	Paul Westlake		Anne Wood
Chelmer	Raymond Barry	John Spence	Martin Ashby	Colin Budgey	Thomas Jones
Chelmsford Central	Edward Massey	Dick Madden	David Jones	Tony Lane	John Theedom
Chelmsford North	Irene Ferguson	Robert Pontin	Stephen Robinson	Angela Thomson	Leslie Retford
Chelmsford West	Bill Horslen	Graham Seeley	Jude Deakin	Avril Howe	Eric Johnston
Chigwell and Loughton Broadway	Margaret Owen	John Knapman	George Lund	Christopher Lord	Lucy Bostick
Clacton East	Norman Jacobs	Peter Halliday	Brian Whitson	Eleanor Gordon	Sandy White
Clacton North	Sam Atkinson	Andy Wood	Harry Shearing	James Horsler	Anne Poonian
Clacton West	Linda Jacobs	Paul Honeywood	Ann Whitson	Clare Palmer	Chris Cotter
Constable	John Spademan	Anne Brown	Carolyn Catney	Roger Bamforth	Mark Cole
Drury	Mike Dale	Sue Lissimore	Nick Cope	Steve Ford	John Pitts
Dunmow	Terry Brandon	Susan Barker	David Morgan	Karmel Stannard	Alan Stannard
Epping and Theydon Bois	Simon Bullough	Robert Glozier	Jon Whitehouse	Barry Johns	Andrew Smith
Frinton and Walton	Rose Lawes	Michael Page	Jo Hayes	Howard Mettler	Simon Ashley
Great Baddow	Richard Hyland	Jenny Chandler	Chris Rycroft	Darryl Newport	Jeanette Howes
Hadleigh	Joe Reeder	Jillian Reeves	Elena Black	Douglas Copping	Michael Dixon
Halstead	Malcolm Fincken	Joseph Pike	Bernard Dearlove	Stephen Hicks	Michael Ford
Harlow North	Michael Danvers	Michael Garnett	Mary Wiltshire	Howard Reed	Bill Pryor
Harlow South East	Daniella Pritchard	Edward Johnson	Christopher Millington	Nicholas Scales	Mark Gough
Harlow West	Karen Clempner	Linda Pailing	Ian Jackson	Susan Ransome	Jerry Crawford
	Anthony Durcan	Clive Souter	Christopher Robins	Daniel Shadbolt	Dan Long
Harwich	Ivan Henderson	Ricky Callender	Simon Banks	Robbie Spence	John Brown
Hedingham	Stephen Knight	David Finch	Steve Bolter	Joyce Wells	Frank Ferguson
Heybridge and Tollesbury	Stevan Slodzik	Rodney Bass		Robert Graves	Beverley Acevedo
Laindon Park and Fryerns	William Archibald	John Dornan	Francis Barnes-Challinor	Cheryl Gerrard	Mark Ellis
	Anne Fryatt	Terri Sargent	Arnold Lutton	Dawn Holmes	David Sheppard
Loughton Central		Ivan Kovler	Maureen Jarvis	Nicola Fuller	Reginald Ellis
Maldon	Madeline Diamond	Penny Channer		Janet Carden	Geoffrey Dickman
Maypole	Dave Harris	Mike Hardy	Lyn Barton	Pam Nelson	Raymond Tuttlebee
Mersea and Tiptree	Audrey Spencer	John Jowers	Gill Collings	Sue Bailey	Rebecca Ager
Mile End and Highwoods	Jennie Fisher	Benjamin Locker	Anne Turrell	Mary Bryan	Bill Rowley
North Weald and Nazeing	David Mills	Anthony Jackson	Arnold Verrall	Nicola Barnecutt	Peter Field
Ongar and Rural	Peter Gode	Maggie McEwen	Brian Surtees	Jem Barnecutt	Ronald Till
Parsons Heath	Bob Fisher	Charles McKay	Theresa Higgins	Pat Rogers	Ron Levy
Pitsea	Keith Bobbin	Sandra Hillier	Ben Williams	Freddie Gerrard-Abbott	Andrew Ager
	Melissa McGeorge	Andrew Schrader	Linda Williams		Terry McBride
Rayleigh North	David Bodimeade	Malcolm Maddocks	Chris Black		Janet Davies
Rayleigh South	Cameron Scott	John Flack	Pam Waldie		Keith Gibbs
Rochford North	Allan Davies	Terry Cutmore	Deborah Taylor		Gerry Bolton
Rochford South	Jerry Gibson	Colin Seagers	Angela Robinson		Peter Van De Vyver
Rochford West	Rachael Broomfield	Keith Hudson	Ian Gale	Michael Hoy	Cherry Young
Saffron Walden	Jane Berney	Robert Chambers	Richard Freeman	Trilby Roberts	Barry Tyler
South Benfleet	Brian Wilson	Colin Riley	Terry Cooper		Alan Bayley
South Woodham Ferrers	Derek Barnett	Norman Hume	Noel Sutcliffe	Robert King	Cliff Hammans
Southminster	Leslie McDonald	Bob Boyce		Jonathan King	Tim Drain
Springfield	David Howell	Jean Murray	Michael Mackrory	Jeremy Jacobs	Nicholas Tidman
Stansted	Ian Davies	Raymond Gooding	Geoffrey Sell	Martin Wybrew	Peter Barclay
Stanway and Pyefleet	Robert Spademan	Kevin Bentley	Jessica Scott-Boutell	Walter Schwarz	Imelda Clancy
Stock	Maurice Austin	Ian Grundy	Matt Klesel	Rachel Brunton	Jesse Pryke
Tendring Rural East	Mark Morley-Souter	Michael Skeels	Dennis Cook	Chris Southall	Andrew Erskine
Tendring Rural West		Carlo Guglielmi	Rosemary Smith	Duncan Gordon	Dennis Carr
Thaxted	Barbara Light	Simon Walsh	Antoinette Wattebot	John Dunkley	Stuart Moore
Three Fields with Great Notley	Juliet Walton	Roger Walters	Derek Ray	Robert Wright	Susan Hoye
Thundersley	Joe Cooke	Bill Dick	Dominic Graham		Jamie Huntman
Waltham Abbey	Robert Greyson	Ricki Gadsby	Timothy Vaughan	Murray Sackwild	Rod Butler
Wickford Crouch	Andrew Buxton	Malcolm Buckley	Philip Jenkins	Poppy Gerrard-Abbott	Paul Downes
	Albert Ede	Don Morris	Steve Nice	Karin Riedl	Nigel De Lecq Le Gresley
Witham Northern	Philip Barlow	Michael Lager	David Toombs	James Abbott	David Hodges
Witham Southern	Celia Burne	Derrick Louis	Barry Fleet	Philip Hughes	Christopher Warner
Wivenhoe St Andrew	Julie Young	Mo Metcalf-Fisher	Shaun Boughton	Timothy Glover	Graham Tricker