Wish me luck as I wave you goodbye
October 23, 2013 1 Comment
My data is somewhat patchy (is there a resource out there that has all the election data for Southend-on-Sea?) but it is the best I have seen. Anyway, somewhat predictably it illustrates the Tory domination of the town. Nonetheless, predictable as it is it does hold one or two surprises.
The Conservatives have only been above 50% twice in the popular vote, whereas they have spent most of this time either in control, or as the largest party but just shy of a majority in the council chamber. No wonder they like first past the post – it certainly helps them here.
On two occasions they have been out-polled; beaten by the Alliance and Labour. (They were also beaten by the ‘others’ – a collection of all the minor party and independent votes).
It is five years since the Tories have hit 40% – and I doubt many would wager that 2014 would seem them reach this number. The surprise here is that they did not manage it in 2010. They polled the same percentage of votes in 2011 as they did in 2010, which somewhat makes any thoughts of a bounce in 2015 somewhat premature and in defiance of the facts. In fact, most are predicting that 2015 will be worse for the blues than 2010. The significance of this will unfold if, as is expected, the Tories lose control of the council next May. I expect they think they will have just twelve months in the wilderness; I think these numbers show that that is not a given.