July 4, 2013 1 Comment
Labour’s undoing in 2004 was a small but significant surge in support for the Liberal Democrats and Greens. The Green Party have been battling away here for some time in what was a one of their better performing wards. However, whilst they will disagree, my view is that their presence made Tory success easier to come by.
The Conservatives, now on the verge of losing their last councillor in this ward, once had all three. Next year’s election will see them attempting to defend the seat, an all but impossible task considering their third place last year and their current unpopularity. The winner is most likely going to come from the Labour or Independent camps, and if the latter this will have seen this most volatile of wards in the total control of three different parties in just over a decade.
However, if there is a chink of light for the Tories it is the promise of a UKIP presence in all seventeen wards next year. A UKIP presence in a year of European Parliamentary elections will see an impact, and one that is not easy to predict. However, if the Independent support here is a vote for anti-politics then UKIP’s none-of-the-above message will be competing for the same territory. It is not difficult to visualise a four-way split, and in these circumstances it will come down to who is best organised in the ward.